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AWS EDP Management

How to Forecast AWS Spend Before Signing an EDP (And Why It Matters)

How to build a solid forecast before locking in multi-year deals.

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TL'DR

An AWS Enterprise Discount Program (EDP) can unlock major savings, but without an accurate forecast, you risk overcommitting or leaving money on the table. The key? Align cloud spend with business growth, analyze usage patterns, and model best- and worst-case scenarios.

Incorporate AWS Marketplace spend, optimize pricing models (on-demand, RIs, savings plans), and use rolling forecasts to stay agile. Collaborate with engineering and leverage cost management tools to refine your projections.

A well-structured forecast strengthens EDP negotiations and protects your bottom line. Learn how to lock in savings while keeping flexibility. Read the full post to find out more.

Why a Poor Forecast Can Make or Break an EDP Deal

Signing an AWS Enterprise Discount Program (EDP) is one of the most critical financial decisions a growth-stage SaaS startup can make. Amazon Web Services offers deep cost savings through EDP discounts, but the stakes are high: overcommitting can lead to wasted spend, while undercommitting can leave you paying premium prices for on-demand services.

This balancing act is particularly challenging for CFOs tasked with aligning cloud spending with scalability, profitability, and innovation goals. A precise forecast of your AWS spending is your best tool for managing these risks, ensuring that your EDP agreement supports your business needs while minimizing financial exposure.

Aligning Your AWS Forecast with Business Goals

Forecasting AWS usage is more than predicting cloud spend; it’s about connecting your AWS cloud investments to your broader strategy. Start by breaking your AWS bill down into key components, including usage patterns, pricing models, and cloud services like compute, storage, and databases such as RDS.

Collaborate with engineering to align long-term commitments like reserved instances or savings plans with anticipated workloads. Factor in business growth, such as product launches or market expansions, to avoid shortfall penalties or overcommitting on your annual spend.

An accurate AWS EDP forecast ensures your spending commitments match both current usage and future cloud computing needs.

From AWS Usage Patterns to Future Needs

To create a realistic forecast, start with an audit of your AWS bill. What services—like compute, RDS, or storage—drive your highest costs? Are your workloads steady, or do they spike seasonally? Identifying high-volume areas of cloud usage reveals where cost optimization opportunities lie.

For example, if your SaaS product relies heavily on compute power during customer onboarding cycles, transitioning from on-demand to reserved instances or savings plans could yield substantial cost savings. Aligning these trends with your pricing structure and anticipated business needs ensures that your EDP commitment reflects real-world usage.

Pricing Models: Choose Wisely

AWS pricing is flexible but complex. To optimize your cloud cost strategy, you must understand the strengths and limitations of different pricing models:

  • On-Demand: Offers flexibility but at a higher cost. Ideal for unpredictable workloads.
  • Reserved Instances: Significant discounts for long-term commitments, but only beneficial if accurately forecasted.
  • Savings Plans: More flexible than reserved instances, they adapt to evolving AWS usage patterns while still providing cost savings.

A thoughtful approach to pricing ensures that your EDP discount rate reflects an optimal mix of predictability and flexibility, helping you avoid unnecessary expenses.

Scenario Planning: Safeguard Your EDP Commitment

Scenario planning helps mitigate the risks associated with overcommitting or falling short of your annual spend requirements.

  1. Best-Case Scenario: Aggressive growth maximizes your use of reserved instances and savings plans, achieving full EDP discount eligibility.
  2. Worst-Case Scenario: Growth stagnates, leaving significant portions of your spending commitments underutilized.
  3. Most Likely Scenario: Steady growth aligns with historical AWS usage and planned workloads.

By modeling these scenarios, you demonstrate to AWS account managers that your cloud cost strategy is both strategic and data-driven. This positions your business for stronger EDP negotiations and higher discounts.

The Overlooked Cost: AWS Marketplace Spend

AWS Marketplace purchases are often a hidden factor in cloud spend forecasts. These third-party providers offer tools and services that are billed through AWS, directly impacting your annual commitment.

To integrate AWS Marketplace spend into your forecast:

  • Audit Past Purchases: Identify recurring tools and services critical to your cloud infrastructure.
  • Plan for Growth: As your business scales, expect an increase in AWS Marketplace spending.
  • Negotiate Bundled Discounts: Explore opportunities to include AWS Marketplace providers in your EDP negotiations.

Overlooking this piece of your AWS bill can lead to surprises that disrupt your cost management efforts.

Rolling Forecasts for Agile Cost Management

Cloud usage evolves rapidly, and your forecasts must keep pace. Static annual forecasts often fall short, but a rolling forecast—updated quarterly or monthly—keeps you responsive to changing business needs and AWS spending patterns.

This proactive approach ensures that your spending commitments remain aligned with both short-term objectives and long-term cloud infrastructure strategies. It also signals to AWS account managers that your team is prepared, improving your leverage in EDP negotiations.

Tools to Simplify AWS Cost Management

Modern FinOps tools empower CFOs to create precise, actionable forecasts. These platforms streamline data collection, visualize cost trends, and model scenarios for EDP agreements. Tools like Cloud Capital’s platform take this further by integrating AWS account data with business growth metrics, helping you align cloud spend with operational priorities.

By using these tools, you not only simplify the process but also improve your eligibility for higher discounts by presenting a clear, data-backed case for your EDP commitment.

Partnerships That Drive Success

Forecasting isn’t just about crunching numbers—it’s about building partnerships that deliver value. A trusted provider like Cloud Capital empowers AWS customers to craft forecasts that maximize cost savings, optimize annual spend, and strengthen their cloud computing strategy.

Whether it’s identifying the right pricing structure, balancing reserved instances and on-demand services, or managing AWS Marketplace commitments, Cloud Capital supports CFOs in navigating the complexities of AWS cost management.

👉 Are you ready to take control of your EDP? Start your journey today with a tailored AWS cost forecast. Discover how Cloud Capital can help you unlock cost savings, align with AWS eligibility requirements, and achieve your business goals.

AWS EDP agreements can either save your business significant costs or lock you into commitments that hinder growth. By partnering with Cloud Capital, you gain the clarity and confidence needed to secure an agreement that supports your goals.